Monte Carlo simulation in a peruvian highway

Abstract

Highways and roads are important for nations' development and life quality. This is not different for Peru. A highway project called Daniel Alcides Carrión is expected to provide a solution to the over-employed Carretera Central road. This is a multimillionaire and important infrastructure project. Hence, it is important to evaluate the possible sustainability risks. In consequence, this study employed the Monte Carlo simulation for such a purpose. First, variables have been chosen and segregated into input and output. Variables like the initial investment, recurrent maintenance, periodical maintenance, savings in the operative cost of vehicles, and time savings employed the triangular distribution. Traffic growth and inflation rate employed the Pert distribution. The project's Net Present Value and Internal Rate of Return have been selected as output variables. Crystal Ball software has been employed to perform the Monte Carlo analysis. Consequently, this research found a high probability that the highway can become a profitable project due to its Net Present Value and Internal Rate of Return. Moreover, savings in operative costs of vehicles and traffic growth rate had positive impacts on the project's Net Present Value. However, the initial investment had a negative relationship with the output variable. Hence, the new highway should take prevision policies to maintain traffic flux. Thus, avoid closures that can have both human and natural sources. This study is the first in the Peruvian academic literature regarding highways risk analysis. Moreover, this study provides researchers, state officials, future highway managers, and users' valuable information to elaborate preventive measures to maintain the highway's social sustainability and increase its benefits.