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dc.contributor.advisorMonteagudo Venero, Royes_ES
dc.contributor.authorEspinoza Jaco, Jean Carloses_ES
dc.contributor.authorLopez Galarza, Claudia Margaritaes_ES
dc.identifier.citationEspinoza, J. y Lopez, C. (2021). Monte Carlo simulation in a peruvian highway. Tesis para optar el título profesional de Ingeniera Civil, Escuela Académico Profesional de Ingeniería Civil, Universidad Continental, Huancayo, Perú.es_ES
dc.description.abstractHighways and roads are important for nations' development and life quality. This is not different for Peru. A highway project called Daniel Alcides Carrión is expected to provide a solution to the over-employed Carretera Central road. This is a multimillionaire and important infrastructure project. Hence, it is important to evaluate the possible sustainability risks. In consequence, this study employed the Monte Carlo simulation for such a purpose. First, variables have been chosen and segregated into input and output. Variables like the initial investment, recurrent maintenance, periodical maintenance, savings in the operative cost of vehicles, and time savings employed the triangular distribution. Traffic growth and inflation rate employed the Pert distribution. The project's Net Present Value and Internal Rate of Return have been selected as output variables. Crystal Ball software has been employed to perform the Monte Carlo analysis. Consequently, this research found a high probability that the highway can become a profitable project due to its Net Present Value and Internal Rate of Return. Moreover, savings in operative costs of vehicles and traffic growth rate had positive impacts on the project's Net Present Value. However, the initial investment had a negative relationship with the output variable. Hence, the new highway should take prevision policies to maintain traffic flux. Thus, avoid closures that can have both human and natural sources. This study is the first in the Peruvian academic literature regarding highways risk analysis. Moreover, this study provides researchers, state officials, future highway managers, and users' valuable information to elaborate preventive measures to maintain the highway's social sustainability and increase its benefits.es_ES
dc.format.extentp. 1727-1734es_ES
dc.publisherUniversidad Continentales_ES
dc.sourceUniversidad Continentales_ES
dc.sourceRepositorio Institucional - Continentales_ES
dc.subjectAnálisis de riesgoes_ES
dc.subjectConstrucción de carreterases_ES
dc.subjectProyectos de inversiónes_ES
dc.titleMonte Carlo simulation in a peruvian highwayes_ES
dc.rights.licenseAttribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)es_ES
dc.rights.accessRightsAcceso abiertoes_ES
dc.publisher.countryPEes_ES Civiles_ES Continental. Facultad de Ingeniería.es_ESía Civiles_ES presencial regulares_ES
dc.identifier.journalCivil Engineering and Architecturees_ES
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